UK Housing Market: Is the Current Housing Market Exceeding Experts' Predictions?

In a surprising twist, the UK housing market seems poised to defy earlier predictions and outperform expectations in 2023, according to a recent analysis by Rightmove. Despite the turbulence experienced at the end of 2022, the market has shown resilience, with the average asking price declining only 3% from its peak in May. Moreover, the number of agreed sales is down just 10% compared to 2019, and the current number of listings is only 1% lower than four years ago. Tim Bannister, Head of Data at Rightmove, suggests that there is more reason for optimism in 2023 than many had anticipated.

The Resilience of the UK Housing Market:

Rightmove's analysis highlights the remarkable resilience of the housing market in the face of uncertainties and challenges. Despite concerns stemming from the "unsustainably frothy heights" of May, the average asking price has experienced a moderate 3% decline. This suggests a more stable and sustainable market correction rather than the drastic downturn that some may have feared.

The Numbers Tell the Story:

The data presented by Rightmove offers a clear picture of the market's current state. The 10% decrease in the number of agreed sales compared to 2019 is a noteworthy figure but indicates a more measured adjustment than a significant slump. This modest decline suggests that despite the challenges posed by the preceding year, the housing market has not experienced a drastic drop in buyer interest.

Listings and Inventory:

One of the positive signs highlighted in Rightmove's analysis is the mere 1% reduction in the number of listings compared to four years ago. This statistic indicates that despite any hesitations in the market, sellers are still actively putting their properties on the market. The stability in the number of listings could contribute to maintaining a healthy balance between supply and demand, preventing any drastic imbalances that might negatively impact property values.

Tim Bannister's Perspective:

Tim Bannister, the Head of Data at Rightmove, offers a perspective that underscores the unexpected positive developments in 2023. Despite acknowledging the twists and turns the market has undergone, Bannister emphasizes that the data indicates a more optimistic outlook than anticipated a year ago. His statement reflects a cautious optimism, recognizing the remaining weeks in the year while highlighting the positive trends observed so far.

What does this mean for advisers?

The unexpected resilience and positive trends in the 2023 housing market, as outlined by Rightmove's analysis, bring promising opportunities for mortgage advisers. The moderate 3% decline in average asking prices, combined with a restrained 10% reduction in agreed sales compared to 2019, implies a market that is not experiencing a severe downturn. This stability can instill confidence in potential homebuyers who may have been hesitant amid economic uncertainties. Mortgage advisers can leverage this situation to guide clients through favourable mortgage options, taking advantage of the relatively stable market conditions. Moreover, the continued listing of properties at a rate just 1% lower than four years ago indicates a sustained level of activity in the real estate sector. This presents mortgage advisers with a steady flow of potential clients, creating an environment where they can play a crucial role in helping individuals secure mortgages in a market that, against expectations, seems to be on a more solid footing. As the housing market proves its resilience, mortgage advisers stand to benefit from an increased demand for their expertise in navigating this unexpected yet promising landscape.

Conclusion:

In conclusion, Rightmove's analysis paints a surprisingly positive picture of the 2023 UK housing market. The moderate 3% decline in average asking prices, coupled with a modest 10% reduction in agreed sales compared to 2019, indicates a resilience that defies earlier forecasts. The stability in the number of listings also suggests ongoing seller confidence. Tim Bannister's remarks add a note of optimism, acknowledging the uncertainties of the remaining weeks in the year while emphasizing the positive trends observed thus far. As we navigate the final stretch of 2023, the housing market appears to be on a more solid footing than many had predicted, signaling potential opportunities for both buyers and sellers alike.